Monday, November 28, 2005

Inverted Yield Curve!

2 yr 99 27/32 +2/32 4.32 -0.09
5 yr 100 25/32 +5/32 4.31 -0.16
10 yr 100 24/32 +6/32 4.40 -0.16
30 yr 111 4/32 +21/32 4.62 -0.14

It's been very hard to come up with something interesting to post. I think it's obvious that the housing bubble is unwinding. The only question is how much and how fast. Those of us in search of a home are not really intereted in esoteric econometrics or rightious indignation. We just want to be able to afford a home for our family. Somthing that Mr. Greenspan took away from us! Anyway, the yield curve has inverted. i.e. the 2's are yielding 4.32 and the 5s are yielding 4.31. Full inverstion of 10's and 2's cannot be far behind. This will hopefully be the choke hold on the bubble that will make the speculators and loose lenders go away. I still have hope and faith in our country. This pain is going to be necessary.

Saturday, November 12, 2005

Spendthrift Nation

A must read from Kevin J. Lansing of the San Fransisco Fed. Just read it!

Spendthrift Nation

Thursday, November 10, 2005

$100,000 loss before you walk through the door.

Nice article from Washington Post about the bust in northern Virginia. One young couple has already lost $100K (pre-construction price), as copare to what the going rate for their town house. If you have to change jobs or move for any reason, you have to come up with $100,000 plus realtors fees, just to get out of the house. This will be the type of pain that many people will be feeling.

Lost $100,000 before I moved in

Sunday, November 06, 2005

Was Hurricane Wilma a turning point in the Florida R/E Frenzy?

Interesting artricle out of the Miami Herald drawing parallels between Hurricane Wilma, and the Hurricane of 1926 which destroyed the last R/E frenzy in Florida. Is it deja vu all over again? Time will tell.


High School Tuition of over $100,000 per student in NJ Shore!

Another itneresting twist on the bubble. In NJ, schools are funded primarily by property taxes. Since prices have skyrocketed at the Jersey Shore over the past few years, many lower and middle class families with childeren have left, and have been replaced by "investors". This has had some interesting effects. For instance, there has been a tremendous decline in Ambulance Volunteers. One town is down to 4 volunteers, down from 20-25 about 10 years ago, and one of the volunteers is an octagenarian. Another interesting point in the article is the funding for High School. In some of the more expensive towns in Long Beach Island, the average "tuition" paid per student is over $100,000. This is because property values have skyrocketed, and the number of school age children has dwindled. I find this quite bizarre. But, I guess this is what America is all about now.

No Child Left Behind