Saturday, January 28, 2006

Some More Thoughts.

It's been a while since I posted anything, plenty of time to think about the housing market. Though it's obvious that there has been some slowing, there has been no bust. I still stand by my conclusion that I don't believe there will be a "bust" in real estate prices, such as the one we saw with the tech bubble. There will probably be some slow deflation in prices over the course of many years. Though this will painful, I don't believe that there will be a "shock and awe" type of scenario. I am of course only referring to single family homes, and not condos. I cannot speak to what will happen to condo prices in highly speculative areas such as Miami or Phoenix. Of course, all bets are off if there is some type of rare event. If there is some kind of event such as an enormous oil shock, stock market bust, war or large terrorist event, this prediction may be very wrong. I would much rather overpay for a house than have one of these events occur. But as always, these things are out of our control.