Sunday, August 19, 2007

Are we there yet?

How close are we to a true market dislocation. One that is severe enough to take out large players in the debt/credit pyramid. As I was watching Cramer's "meltdown"/carefully orchestrated demagoguery at the behest of some big credit players to get the attention of public/government, it became obvious that there was some real money being lost by real players. It is rather amusing that Cramer's antics were so widely ridiculed; yet it had the desired effect. Namely, The Fed cut the discount rate. Though largely symbolic, it shifts the bias of the Fed into "easing" mode. Surely cuts in the Fed Funds rate are nigh. Since the Fed is really a private bank with monopolistic currency printing power that is doing the bidding of the big Wall Street Firms/Political elite, rate cuts are a "sure thing". Despite Mr. Poole saying that only a "calamity" would force a rate cut, Goldman Sachs Alpha Fund is down some 25%. This "Star Fund" represents some big money, now taking big losses, and in the eyes of the Fed, this is a calamity. An acquaintance of mine told me that they are starting to serve free lunches at GS, an obvious attempt to soothe their people about their shrinking bonuses this year (no free lunch). NY real estate runs on bonuses, and thus by extension confidence. If there is a large market correction leading to a few thousand pink slips, this will sink the NY Real Estate market like the Bismarck (another unsinkable ship). We are really at the precipice now. If Bernanke keeps FF rates at 5.25%, the tsunami in the credit markets will roll through and take out many players quickly. If he lowers rates (which I believe he will as well as the EUCB), credit party continues for a while, but dollar/euro will get hurt. Yen carry trade probably finally unwinding and thus yen may be the most undervalued asset in the world.


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