Saturday, December 16, 2006

Predictions for 2007

I have thought about this for some time now. Overall, the housing market has not behaved like I thought it would. It didn't "implode" like a lot of super bears predicted it might. Certainly, the market became tighter with the supply demand dynamic shifting slightly more in the buyers favor. However, prices are still very high and interest rates are still very low, though not rock bottom. Bill Gross of PIMCO recently said that he believes that the Fed will lower rates by 1% next year to soften the blow of the slowing real estate market. It's hard to argue with Mr. Gross. Furthermore, if England real estate market is any indication (it is supposed to be 6-12 month ahead of our market), then the US market is in for a rebound of some sorts. We have obviously reached a limit in terms of prices at these interest rates and incomes. But, the "animal spirits" could still be further released by interest rates cuts. So my predictions are as follows: The Fed will lower interest rates by about 0.5% in 2007. Prices will stabilize, as will inventories, and all the bulls will come out of hiding again. Price averages for 2007 will be about neutral to slightly positive compared to 2006. All this assumes that there won't be the "fat tail" rare event that will completely destablize capital markets. Then, all bets are off! It is obvious that high real estate prices are of national security intertest, because if prices colapse, the whole deck of cards that is the U.S. economy will go down with it. Therefore, it is logical to conclude that the government will do everything in it's power to keep prices relatively stable, even if this screws millions of people. Because, they would argue, it's in our national best interests. Time will tell.

55 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think your giving up to quickly. The decline has just started. It took five years to get here. Expect some time for it to fall. It’s like a roll coaster. When it starts to go back down, it starts of slow. This decline will take about 5 to 10 years before we hit the bottom. Nov. NJ home prices are down about 5% YOY.

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Blogger xSparta said...

I don't think the FED will be able to lower interest rates next year. There new concern is the falling dollar. If the FED lowers rates the dollar might go into a freefall. Some experts feel a little inflation and a slowing housing market might be a better option. Oh and if the dollar freefalls China might make good on their promise to dump dollars in favor of the EURO. This would accelerate the fall and make interest rates go up. Choose your poison!

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Blogger njdoc said...

"This decline will take about 5 to 10 years before we hit the bottom. Nov. NJ home prices are down about 5% YOY."

The problem with this probably realistic assesment is if you have children of a certain age. What are you going to tell your kids that they can't have a room, because of a housing bubble, or in 5-10 years we can have our own house. What may be "good" on a macro scale, sucks for those left behind. You have to decide what is the value of those things versus how much you are overpaying for a house.

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Blogger njdoc said...

xsparta: you make a reasonable argument. However,
I still believe that the Fed will lower rates to "juice up" the housing market. It will be a temporary boost to avoid a major free fall, though the major trend is still downward.

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"What are you going to tell your kids that they can't have a room, because of a housing bubble"

Rent a house. Its cheaper then owning one.

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Blogger njdoc said...

"Spring 2007 Hosuing Massacre comig to a Hood near you."

Bob, I don't know what kind of massacre you are anticipating. If you are waiting for a price free fall, I don't believe it's going to happen. Our whole economy is leveraged to high asset prices. If you see a free fall in either real estate of stock prices, that means that our whole economy, or at the minimum the dollar, is in the toilet. The government will do anything in it's power to have a "controlled" landing. That means, in my opinion, high prices for a long time, at least in the single home market. I look at my own town in Northern New Jersey, and I see small price reductions, but there has NOT been a death spiral in prices. Certainly, people have become more aware of the bubble, but there are still plenty of transactions.

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